OpenAI has signed deals to spend $1.4 trillion on datacenters over the coming years. The company projects $20 billion in annual revenue for 2025. The gap between spending commitments and current revenue has raised questions across the tech industry.
According to Forbes, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has struck agreements with Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Broadcom and Amazon. To meet these commitments, OpenAI would need to grow revenue to $577 billion by 2029. That figure roughly equals Google’s projected revenue for the same year. The jump represents a 2900% increase from 2025 projections.
How Contracts Could Change
Data center contracts are complex and span multiple years. Companies typically bill based on usage. The announced numbers often exceed what contracts actually require. Variables like share price, construction costs and chip prices affect final totals.
OpenAI committed to buy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD chips worth around $90 billion. The deal involves about 10% of AMD shares with no cash changing hands. Performance milestones and AMD’s share price determine the final value. Contracts with CoreWeave totaling $22.4 billion can be terminated by either party for cause.
Renegotiation Options
Companies like Oracle and Amazon could renegotiate contracts if OpenAI cannot pay. Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, told Forbes that providers do not want OpenAI to go bankrupt. Their incentive is to renegotiate and get some business rather than none.
Altman has stated he does not own equity in OpenAI. Ofer Eldar, a professor at UC Berkeley School of Law, said Altman takes on commitments without facing financial consequences. He has the upside of influence if things succeed.
What Happens If OpenAI Fails
If OpenAI filed for bankruptcy, debtholders would get paid first. The company announced a $4 billion credit facility with nine banks in October 2024. Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI after last week’s restructuring. Microsoft has invested $11.6 billion of a $13 billion commitment.
Other major shareholders include Thrive, SoftBank and Dragoneer. Common shareholders would receive any remaining funds proportionally. The nonprofit holds a special share with majority voting power but no financial return if the company liquidates.
Many large payments are not due for several years. That gives OpenAI time to raise funds or grow revenue. Companies involved in the deals gained $636 billion in market value on announcement days. When OpenAI announced a $38 billion deal with Amazon on Monday, Amazon stock rose 4%.
