Global markets are on edge ahead of Nvidia’s latest quarterly results, with investors treating the chipmaker’s numbers as a referendum on the AI boom and the broader stock market. According to Fortune, options trading implies a potential 6% swing in Nvidia’s share price after the report, reflecting heightened expectations and uncertainty.
All eyes on Q2 and data center demand
Since Nvidia’s last update in May, the company’s stock has climbed 35%, intensifying pressure for another standout quarter. Wall Street is expecting Q2 revenue of $46 billion, up 53% year over year and at the high end of guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales—central to Nvidia’s business—are anticipated to be near $40 billion, Fortune reported.
The company’s outsized role in the S&P 500 and its dominance in generative AI hardware have made its results a market event, even spawning earnings “watch parties.” But with shares already elevated, any miss or cautious guidance, particularly around China, could trigger a sharp reaction.
Analysts gauge risk from spending concentration
Analysts cited by Fortune highlighted concentration risk: Nvidia’s growth leans on major cloud buyers such as Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, as well as heavily funded AI startups. If those customers slow their spending, Nvidia could face demand pressure. Karl Freund of Cabrian-AI Research said concerns about an AI bubble have persisted for years but did not think it would burst now, while Jack Gold of J.Gold Associates said there may be several quarters to a couple of years of strong profits, even as broader market risks remain.
China licensing twists cloud outlook
Fortune detailed a turbulent backdrop for Nvidia’s China business. Washington began requiring export licenses for H20 chips in April, leading to a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 related to unsold inventory and purchase commitments. After Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met President Trump, the White House signaled sales could resume, and Nvidia sought licenses amid delays.
Earlier this month, Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the administration for licenses tied to a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement on China sales. As H20 shipments resumed, Chinese authorities discouraged purchases, citing concerns over customer information submitted for U.S. review and reportedly alleging potential backdoors. Comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about supplying China with Nvidia’s “fourth-best chips” were viewed as “deeply insulting,” the Financial Times was cited as reporting.
Huang later said in Taipei that Nvidia is winding down H20 production and developing a successor, a “new product for AI data centers” modified to meet U.S. requirements, pending government approval. Given the uncertainty, analysts told Fortune they do not expect Nvidia to count or forecast China revenue in this report.
