Hinton Puts 10–20% Odds on AI Wiping Out Humanity

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Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel laureate often called the “godfather of AI,” says artificial intelligence will drive “massive unemployment” while sending profits soaring, an outcome he attributes to the dynamics of capitalism rather than the technology itself. According to Fortune, Hinton’s remarks were made in a wide-ranging interview with the Financial Times and echoed comments he has made in recent months.

‘That is the capitalist system’

Hinton said “rich people are going to use AI to replace workers,” predicting it will “make a few people much richer and most people poorer.” He framed the outcome as a function of the “capitalist system,” not AI’s inherent qualities. While layoffs have not spiked, Fortune reports mounting signs that AI is shrinking opportunities, especially in entry-level roles where many recent graduates begin their careers.

In the same discussion, Hinton dismissed proposals for a universal basic income as a sufficient response to AI-driven disruption, arguing it “won’t deal with human dignity” and the value derived from having jobs. He has previously argued that some sectors may be more resilient than others, suggesting healthcare could benefit if AI makes doctors far more efficient, enabling more care at the same cost.

Risks, retraining, and how Hinton uses AI

Warnings and near-term labor signals

Fortune notes that a New York Fed survey found companies using AI are more likely to retrain employees than fire them, though layoffs are expected to rise in the coming months. Hinton has long warned of broader dangers from AI, estimating a 10% to 20% chance that superintelligent systems could wipe out humanity. He separates risks into two categories: dangers from the technology itself and from malicious human use, such as aiding the creation of a bioweapon. He also criticized what he described as the Trump administration’s reluctance to regulate AI, while saying China is taking the threat more seriously.

Hinton told the Financial Times he primarily uses OpenAI’s ChatGPT for research. He also recounted a personal anecdote involving the chatbot during a breakup. As for his 2023 departure from Google, he said he retired because he was 75, no longer programmed as well, and wanted time for pursuits like watching Netflix, adding that leaving allowed him to speak more openly about AI’s risks.

“We don’t know what is going to happen,” he said, emphasizing the sweeping uncertainty around AI’s trajectory and its potential to be “amazingly good” or “amazingly bad.”

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