Apple sidestepped a potential multibillion-dollar hit after a federal judge allowed Google to continue revenue-sharing payments to distribution partners for default placement of its Search, Chrome, and generative AI offerings—supporting Apple’s long-running arrangement to make Google the default in Safari and across Siri and other services. According to Yahoo Finance, the decision preserves an estimated $20 billion per year that Apple has been receiving from Google, based on figures cited in antitrust court documents for 2022.
Judge sets conditions while keeping payments intact
The ruling by District of Columbia Judge Amit Mehta permits the revenue-sharing structure to continue but caps agreements at one year, creating an opportunity for Apple to renegotiate terms annually. The decision also prevents Google from forcing partners to exclude competing apps and services from devices. Yahoo Finance notes Apple already offers access to ChatGPT via its Apple Intelligence platform.
Google has said it will appeal Mehta’s earlier finding that the company acted as an illegal monopolist. Even so, the latest order removes immediate uncertainty around the Apple-Google arrangement. Apple shares rose more than 2.5% in early Wednesday trading to around $236 per share following the news, Yahoo Finance reported.
Services revenue context and the $20B estimate
Cash from the Google arrangement is recorded within Apple’s Services segment, which generated $96.2 billion in 2024, per Yahoo Finance. Using the estimated $20 billion figure from 2022 court documents, the payments would represent about 20.8% of that segment; the article notes the $20 billion is an estimate for 2022 and could be higher in subsequent years.
Analyst reactions: opportunity to renegotiate
BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan called the ruling a win for Apple and raised the firm’s price target on the stock from $250 to $260, writing that while Google may appeal, there is no immediate material change to the Apple-Google relationship and payment structure, according to Yahoo Finance.
Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring wrote that the ruling could benefit Apple over time. He said Google’s payments can continue with conditions, Apple can renegotiate default payment rates annually to better monetize search across traditional and new AI-powered partners, and Apple has the choice—but not the requirement—to introduce a choice screen and collect new fees if it opts to do so.
TD Cowen’s Krish Sankar suggested Apple could use the $20 billion figure as a benchmark for future revenue-sharing deals with other generative AI providers. Yahoo Finance also reported that Apple’s Eddy Cue testified during Google’s trial that Safari searches declined for the first time in April as users moved to AI-based search options, and Apple was exploring adding AI search engines like Perplexity to its options.
